Natural Gas

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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 20th Jan 2022

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] When NG had produced a micro-level rebound off the key support zone at 3.320-3.495 towards the key resistance at 4.780-4.950, we had cautioned about a potential incoming wide range whipsaw back to the support region.

Evidently, NG reversed precisely at the key resistance and reached the nearest local support at 4.020-4.120. After meandering around this technical level for the last few days and a couple of failed rebounds, this support is now broken.

At a minimum, NG will now need to get past the newly formed local resistance at 4.230-4.395 to make a renewed effort towards challenging the higher resistances.

Failure to clear this immediate resistance in a bounce shall extend the decline to the local support at 3.640-3.770 (slightly adjusted), a break of which shall expose the key support at 3.320-3.495 yet again.

Corrective waves, by their inherent nature, have the proclivity to trigger frequent whipsaws or choppiness. It is important to understand the nature of such waves, know the technical parameters and operate with discipline & solid risk control



REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 14th Jan 2022

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] In our last update (tagged), we had cautioned about the previous breakout causing wide-range whipsaws in NG. Evidently, the last 48 hours have seen NG reaching the key resistance at 4.780-4.950 yesterday followed by a precipitous whipsaw to the nearest local support at 4.020-4.120. 

NG is now meandering near the local support at 4.020-4.120 for the last few hours attempting nano-level bounces. The traction is limited so far. Below this level resides another local support at 3.710-3.850 (slightly adjusted)

From a macro-level perspective, one of these supports will need to come to the rescue and deliver a powerful bounce that shall blow through the key resistance at 4.780-4.950 if NG is serious about making an immediate transition from the existing larger degree corrective structure to the next impulse leg up.

NG has now also formed a new layer of local resistance at 4.640-4.695 right below the key resistance. This region shall be the first micro-level test in the event of a bounce.

Inability to generate sufficient traction and a break below the local support at 3.710-3.850 shall pour cold water on this evolving micro-level setup and open the gates back to the key support at 3.320-3.495.


REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 12th Jan 2022

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] NG has previously bounced off the key support at 3.320-3.495. After spending the last few weeks oscillating between the nearest technical levels, it has finally managed to breakout above the key resistance earlier today.

NG has now formed TWO new layers of local supports at 4.020-4.120 followed by 3.780-3.890. It will need to operate above these supports during all pullbacks going forward if it intends to make a transition from the existing larger degree corrective structure to the next impulse leg up. 

At the micro-level, holding above the local supports in a pullback shall set up a test of the next key resistance at 4.780-4.950.

With the breakout today, the average daily price range may expand again creating a potential for wide range whipsaws. Kindly know your parameters and operate with discipline and solid risk management.


REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 30th Dec 2021

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] Every time NG encounters a speed bump (resistance), it decelerates, turns around, and reaches out to the nearest support for guidance. It takes NG a number of such feedback loops to get past one resistance. Such behavior is a characteristic of a corrective setup which is to simply ping-pong between key technical levels for many weeks before giving birth to a new impulse setup. An impulse setup generally arrives with a bang blowing through at least a couple of resistances confidently & effortlessly.

NG has receded from the neighborhood of the local resistance at 4.140-4.240 shared in the previous update (for FEB contract).
The key support continues to remain at 3.320-3.495 (adjusted for FEB contract) and has triggered multiple rebounds towards the nearest resistance. Below this resides the larger degree key support at 3.030-3.150.

Overall, in the big picture, NG will need to operate above these supports in all pullbacks to continually challenge the local resistance at 4.140-4.240 followed by the key resistance at 4.430-4.580.

Overcoming the key resistance shall prepare NG to take on the larger degree (macro-level) conditions necessary to transition from the current corrective structure to the next impulse leg up. These conditions shall be posted in the event of a break.