Natural Gas

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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 24th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] A massive upsurge in wave(3) rarely culminates with a straightforward reversal. In its final leg, wave(3) has the propensity to generate a prolonged TUG OF WAR of emotions between early entrants and late participants resulting in frequent whipsaws. This "fear and greed" phenomenon has been elaborated on many times previously. A note is appended to the end of this update for easy reference.

Back to the Technical Update

In our previous updates, we have frequently highlighted the significance of the key support at 4.660-4.700. As long as this support holds, further bullish extensions cannot be completely ruled out.  In other words, only a strong decisive break of 4.660 shall be a harbinger of an incoming deeper correction. 

At the micro-level, NG has rebounded slightly above the key support at 4.660-4.700. It has now formed a new layer of local support at 4.820-4.890. This support level shall be a TEST to determine whether NG is attempting to develop an immediate micro-level bullish setup.

In a whipsaw (choppy) environment, one meticulous way to maneuver through all the sporadic twists & turns is to frequently TEST the price action with updated technical levels and conditions.

If NG manages to hold above this local support during any smaller degree pullback, then it is a signal that NG is going to break the local resistance at 5.180-5.220 and set up a test of the key resistance at 5.360-5.400 (slightly calibrated).

Note on TUG OF WAR of emotions

A wave(3) is generated by mass psychology that the trend is both evident and confident. The majority of the traders/investors -- smart money, institutional investors, funds, some public money -- operate with hyper-enthusiasm to participate in this trend. This is exactly why wave(3) moves are strong & smooth with shallow pullbacks. All dips get bought swiftly. This lopsided emotion leads to an over-extended rally until price action approaches meaningful larger degree resistances.

Such over-extended moves in wave(3) causes suspicion & confusion among some market participants, especially EARLY entrants who managed to buy dips at significantly lower levels in waves (1) & (2). Out of fear of losing gains and an assumption that a top may be near, they start booking gains (at least partially) as wave(3) approaches meaningful resistances. This results in prices receding from the highs.

When the prices dip, it catches the attention of LATE entrants who missed a large part of the wave(3) rally. They find the dips attractive and start accumulating with an assumption that there shall be a repeat of the previous rally.

This tug of war of emotions between early & late entrants and conflict between fear & greed gives birth to a consolidation and the accompanying whipsaws.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 21st Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] In the previous update (tagged), we had clearly mentioned that if NG fails to clear the immediate resistance, it shall mean that the correction is incomplete and a retest of the local support at 4.920-4.975 remains on the cards.

This is exactly what has played out in the last few hours. NG failed to surpass the local resistance at 5.180-5.220 and returned to retest the local support and then broke it.

The key support continues to reside at 4.660-4.700. Please note that a new smaller degree local support has also formed at 4.770-4.830.

At the macro-level, NG will need to hold above one of the above supports if it intends to restore the wave(3) extensions. Failure to hold above the key support at 4.660-4.700 is a harbinger of an incoming deeper correction in wave(4) and shall set up a test of the next key support at 4.300-4.340.

NG is currently operating in a whipsaw territory. Corrective waves, by their inherent nature, can trigger frequent whipsaws & choppiness. Kindly understand the nature of such waves, know the technical parameters and operate with discipline & risk management

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 20th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] In line with the previous update (tagged), NG has reached the local support at 4.920-4.975 at market open and has been attempting a rebound off this support.

The immediate obstacle is the local resistance at 5.180-5.220 followed by the next one at 5.390-5.430.

Only a strong decisive break of these resistances shall reopen the gates to the key resistance at 5.725-5.795.

Inability to clear the immediate resistances in this bounce shall mean that the correction is incomplete and a retest of the local support at 4.920-4.975 remains on the cards. Below this level resides the key support at 4.660-4.700.

At the macro-level, NG will need to hold above one of the above supports if it intends to restore the wave(3) extensions. Failure to hold above the key support at 4.660-4.700 is a harbinger of an incoming deeper correction in wave(4). We shall elaborate on this scenario in greater detail in the event of a break.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 17th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] After a relentless pursuit of multiple extensions in wave(3), NG has finally decided to take a breath and has commenced a pullback near the key resistance at 5.725-5.795.

The nearest local support has been revised to 4.920-4.975 based on a re-assessment of the micro-pattern. Kindly note this change. Below this technical level resides the key support at 4.660-4.700.

NG will need to hold above one of these supports in the current pullback if it intends to restore the wave(3) extensions. That said, any rebound effort will need to be strong enough to at least clear the newly formed local resistance at 5.390-5.430 for NG to have another go at the key resistance at 5.725-5.795.

Failure to hold above the key support at 4.660-4.700 in the current pullback is a harbinger of an incoming deeper correction in wave(4). We shall elaborate on this scenario in greater detail in the event of a break.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 14th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] NG continues to operate in wave(3) within a larger degree bullish setup and has managed to reach the next extension key resistance at 5.260-5.400 shared in the previous update.

NG is currently negotiating this resistance zone and has marginally receded from it. That said, only a strong impulse downward reaction that breaks the newly formed local support at 5.000-5.050 shall provide a preliminary signal that wave(3) is nearing completion.

Breaking the nearest support would improve the chances for the formation of a corrective wave(4) structure that shall test the lower key supports at 4.660-4.730 followed by 4.040-4.100.

Failure to take out the nearest local support in a pullback indicates that wave(3) is still incomplete and another test of the key resistance at 5.260-5.400 remains on the cards. A break above 5.400 shall open the gates to the next extension at 5.725-5.795.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 9th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] NG has reached the next extension key resistance in wave(3) at 4.970-5.040 yesterday and has now marginally pulled back from it.

The only way to put brakes on these relentless extensions is for NG to work out a strong impulse break of the nearest local support at 4.660-4.730 and then operate below the new local resistance (yet to form) during any smaller degree rebounds.

Such a structure shall then build a setup for a wave(4) correction which has the potential to test the lower key supports at 4.270-4.310 followed by 4.040-4.100 and 3.740-3.810.

Failure to break the nearest local support in the current pullback shall mean a continuation of the wave(3) extension and a retest of the key resistance at  4.970-5.040, a break of which shall open the gates to the next extension at 5.260-5.400.

NG storage report later today may bring substantial volatility. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 7th Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] NG continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup and has been pursuing the extensions in wave(3) in the last few days. It reached the key resistance at 4.770-4.790 yesterday and has receded from it so far.

As mentioned in the previous update, NG will need to work out a strong break of the immediate local support at 4.460-4.490 to put the brakes on the wave(3) extensions. Such a break shall be a preliminary signal that NG is transitioning to a corrective wave(4), which has the potential to trigger a deeper retracement to the lower key supports.

Failure to break the nearest local support in the current pullback shall mean a continuation of the wave(3) extension and a retest of the key resistance at 4.770-4.790, a break of which shall open the gates to the next extension at 4.970-5.040.

The lower key supports continue to reside at 4.060-4.120 followed by 3.910-3.980.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 2nd Sep 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] NG continues to pursue extensions in wave(3) and has been continuously probing the key resistance at 4.670-4.720 for the last few hours. Surpassing this level shall bring further extensions to the next key resistance at 4.770-4.790 (newly formed) followed by 4.850-4.920.

Only a strong break of the immediate local support at 4.460-4.490 shall put the brakes on the wave(3) extensions and provide a preliminary signal that NG is considering a transition to a corrective wave(4) and a slightly deeper pullback to the next supports. Important to note that such a correction shall bring frequent whipsaws.

At the micro-level, the key support has been adjusted and resides at 4.060-4.120 followed by 3.910-3.980.

NG storage report later today may bring volatility. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 27th Aug 2021

[Natural Gas October Futures Update] Please note the change in contract from September to October (NGV2021). The key levels have shifted slightly given the new contract

In our previous update (tagged), we had stated that as long as NG holds above the key support at 3.700-3.770 during any pullback, it has the license to make repeated attempts to break the immediate resistances.

Amid storage report volume surge & volatility, the nearest resistances have been taken out. NG is now within striking distance of the larger degree (macro-level) key resistance zone. This region comprises of two adjacent key resistances at 4.290-4.340 followed by 4.395-4.460.

To understand the significance of the larger degree resistance zone, let us review the detailed wave structure that is currently playing out in NG.

Please note that the sub-waves in smaller degrees are denoted using roman numerals (i, ii, iii....) while the larger degree super cycle wave is using arithmetic numerals (1,2,3....)

At a macro-level, NG continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup. From a wave perspective, it has now transitioned from wave (iv) of (3) to (v) of (3). In other words, NG has now entered the final leg of the larger degree wave(3). This area has been highlighted in the wave schematic shared below.

Wave (v) of (3) will now face the BIGGER HURDLES at the key resistance at 4.290-4.340 followed by 4.395-4.460. Failure to clear these macro-level resistances shall indicate the culmination of the larger degree wave(3) and the beginning of a new retracement leg in wave(4) to the nearest supports.

The immediate key support continues to remain at 3.700-3.770. We shall update newer supports (local/key) along with nano-level patterns based on further price action.

Kindly refer to the wave schematic, know your technical parameters, and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 25th Aug 2021

[Natural Gas September Futures Update] The reaction to the key support at 3.700-3.770 has been limited to a nano-level bounce so far. The rebound has not been able to clear the nearest local resistance at 3.980-4.015 yet.

NG did come very close to probing the resistance yesterday but decided to withdraw from it. That said, as long as the smaller degree technical pullbacks remain above the key support at 3.700-3.770, NG has the license to have another go at the resistance.

From a micro-level structure point of view, NG will not only need to clear the immediate local resistance but also get past the key resistance at 4.080-4.130 to build a setup that shall take the battle to the larger degree key resistance at 4.340-4.395.

Inability to garner sufficient traction to surpass both these resistances shall mean a continuation of wave(iv) whipsaws and a retest of the key support at 3.700-3.770 followed by 3.590-3.640 (slightly calibrated).

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th Aug 2021

[Natural Gas September Futures Update] In line with the previous update (tagged), NG is whipsawing its way to the nearest key support at 3.700-3.770 (slightly calibrated).

The reaction to this support should be telling in terms of the status of the corrective wave(iv). Any bounce in this zone will need to at least surpass the nearest resistance to provide a preliminary signal that NG is exiting the corrective setup and initiating a new leg up.

At this point, the nearest local resistance continues to remain at 3.980-4.015. With more price action, there shall be visibility on new lower resistances and nano-patterns.

Failure to trigger a bounce at the key support at 3.700-3.770 shall expose the adjacent key support at 3.610-3.640

NG storage report later today may bring volatility. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly
 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 17th Aug 2021

[Natural Gas September Futures Update] Sharing nano-level (smallest degree) observations

Last week, NG receded from the key resistance at 4.130-4.205 (previously local) and has been whipsawing in a narrow range as it should in a corrective wave. It has now formed a new layer of local resistance at 3.980-4.015.

Below this local resistance, the pressure remains down towards the micro-level key supports at 3.690-3.750 followed by 3.610-3.640.

Only a strong decisive break above 4.015 shall set up another test of the key resistance at 4.130-4.205.

Corrective waves, by their inherent nature, can trigger frequent whipsaws & choppiness. Kindly understand the nature of such waves, know the technical parameters and operate with discipline & risk management

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 13th Aug 2021


[Natural Gas September Futures Update] In line with the previous update (tagged), NG has receded exactly from the local resistance at 4.130-4.205. We had also mentioned that such price action would make the immediate local support ~ 4.010 vulnerable. This level is now broken.

The only caution is that NG is operating in the fourth wave, which has the propensity to whipsaw in a heartbeat. Kindly be vigilant of such risks involved in trading the fourth wave and plan positioning accordingly.

At the nano-level, a new layer of local support has formed at 3.835-3.875.

Below this resides the adjacent micro-level key supports at 3.690-3.750 followed by 3.610-3.640.

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 4th Aug 2021


[Natural Gas September Futures Update] NG is demonstrating a classic example of a fourth wave, which is well known for its choppiness & frequent whipsaws. Contrast this behavior with the preceding price action in the third wave, which is smooth, strong, and over-extended with shallow pullbacks.

Rebroadcasting a short note on why wave(iv) is the choppiest among all patterns:

Human Emotions & Waves

Firstly, it is important to reinforce that markets are just emotions & need not be rational. The human mind likes to seek fundamental logic in everything through confirmation bias with the help of news headlines, reports, etc. But, markets are future expectations. Expectations are nothing but a bunch of diverse emotional waves of fear & greed escaping out of heterogeneous impulsive & deliberative minds.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." - J Keynes

A wave(iii) is generated by mass psychology that the trend is both evident and confident. Majority of the traders/investors -- smart money, institutional investors, funds, some public money -- operate with hyper-enthusiasm to participate in this trend. This is exactly why wave(iii) moves are strong & smooth with shallow pullbacks. All dips get bought swiftly. This lopsided emotion leads to an over-extended rally until price action approaches meaningful larger degree resistances.

Such over-extended moves in wave(iii) causes suspicion & confusion among some market participants, especially EARLY entrants who managed to buy dips at significantly lower levels in wave(i) & (ii). Out of fear of losing gains and an assumption that a top may be near, they start booking gains (at least partially) as wave(iii) approaches meaningful resistances. This results in prices receding from the highs.

When the prices dip, it catches the attention of LATE entrants who missed the previous wave(iii) rally. They find the dips attractive and start accumulating with an assumption that there shall be a repeat of the previous rally.

This tug of war of emotions between early & late entrants and conflict between fear & greed gives birth to a wave(iv) consolidation and the accompanying whipsaws.

Back to the NG Update


NG continues to remain in a larger degree bullish setup. At the micro-level, it has previously receded from the key resistance at 4.165-4.180.  Only a decisive break of 4.180 shall open the gates to the FIRST larger degree key resistance at 4.340-4.395.

The nearest local support continues to remain at 3.765-3.795 followed by the key support at 3.640-3.690.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 29th Jul 2021

[Natural Gas September Futures Update] Sharing nano-level (smallest degree) observations and adding local technical levels

After meandering around the local resistance ~ 4.05 for the last few hours, NG has managed to surpass it with the help of a sporadic surge in volumes triggered during the EIA storage report.

At the nano-level, NG has now formed a new layer of local support at 3.980-4.020. NG will need to operate above this level if it intends to have another shot at the key resistance at 4.165-4.180. A decisive break of 4.180 shall open the gates to the FIRST larger degree key resistance at 4.340-4.395.

Inability to hold above 3.980 during a technical pullback shall again shift the near-term focus back to the next local support at 3.765-3.795 followed by the key support at 3.640-3.690.

Amid the micro/nano-level updates & observations that we share regularly, it is important to not lose sight of the fact that NG continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Jul 2021


[Natural Gas August Futures Update] At the micro-level, NG has been making round trips between the nearest key support at 3.465-3.520 (previously local) and the key resistance at 3.810-3.850 (slightly calibrated). It is currently making another attempt to probe the resistance after rebounding from the support a few days back.

NG will need to work out a strong decisive break of 3.850 if it intends to open the gates to the next key resistance at 4.070-4.130.

Failure to surmount the immediate resistance shall set up another test of the key support at 3.465-3.520.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 9th Jul 2021

[Natural Gas August Futures Update] NG is following the technical framework obediently and operating from one technical level to another.

After previously receding from the key resistance at 3.810-3.820, NG has reached the nearest local support at 3.465-3.520 a couple of days back. It is now attempting a rebound from this support zone.

At the micro-level, NG will need to operate above this local support in any technical pullback if it intends to have another shot at the key resistance at 3.810-3.820, a break of which shall open the gates to the next key resistance at 4.070-4.130.

Inability to hold above the local support shall expose the key support at 3.360-3.395 followed by 3.230-3.270.
 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 30th Jun 2021
 

[Natural Gas August Futures Update] Whenever NG strives to make a trending move, it often moves with a lot of ferocity triggering short squeezes and stop-loss runs that can result in price action breaching & overshooting the technical levels by a small margin. This is a common occurrence during winter.

On account of this breach, the immediate key resistance has been calibrated to the HOD (High of Day) at 3.810-3.815

With this sharp move, NG has now formed a couple of additional micro-level key supports. The nearest local support is at 3.465-3.512 followed by another key support at 3.360-3.395.

At the macro-level, NG will need to hold above the key support at 3.230-3.270 during any technical pullback to preserve the strength of this evolving bullish pattern. Only a strong decisive break below 3.230 shall weaken this nascent setup and will call for an assessment of alternate scenarios.

A clean break over the key resistance at 3.810-3.815 shall open the gates to the next key resistance at 4.070-4.130.

Kindly know your parameters and operate with discipline & solid risk management

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 22nd Jun 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update]  NG price action has been quite choppy at the nano-level. In light of this choppiness, the nearest local resistance has been slightly adjusted.

While NG has been repeatedly receding (four times) from the local resistance zone at  3.280-3.315, it is also swiftly rebounding back to the resistance zone from regions slightly above the key support at 3.080-3.095.

A break above 3.315 shall expose the key resistance at 3.370-3.380 and swing the probabilities towards a test of the larger degree key resistance at 3.440-3.490.

At a macro-level, NG continues to remain in a larger degree wave(2). That said, a strong decisive break of the key resistance at 3.440-3.490 shall be an initial signal that NG is attempting to make a transition from a corrective wave(2) to a bullish wave(3), which shall bring serious acceleration to the upside.

Kindly know your parameters and operate with solid risk management

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 16th Jun 2021

 

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has receded from the larger degree key resistance region at 3.370-3.430  (slightly calibrated) and reached the local support at  3.175-3.205 earlier today.  It is currently attempting a bounce off this support.

This bounce will need to clear the newly formed  local resistance at 3.260-3.290 if NG intends to have another go at the larger degree key resistance.

Failure to surmount this local resistance shall set up another test of the local support, a break of which shall expose the lower key support at 3.080-3.095.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 14th Jun 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has garnered substantial traction after last week's rebound from the key support at 3.080-3.095 (previously local). It has broken the nearest resistances and is now attempting to extend to the larger degree key resistance region at 3.380-3.430.

NG will need to operate above the newly formed local support at 3.175-3.200 on any technical pullback if it intends to extend further to probe this larger degree resistance region. Only a break below 3.175 shall disrupt the current extension and expose the key support at 3.080-3.095 again.

At a macro-level, NG continues to remain in a larger degree wave(2). That said, a strong decisive break of the key resistance at 3.380-3.430 shall be an initial signal that NG is attempting to make a transition from a corrective wave(2) to a bullish wave(3), which shall bring serious acceleration to the upside.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 2nd Jun 2021
 

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has now formed a new layer of local support at 3.000-3.040. It will need to operate above this level if it intends to extend further to test the next key resistance at 3.200-3.245.

Only a strong break below 3.000 shall shift the focus back to the key support at 2.890-2.910.

It is important to recall that NG is currently operating in a larger degree corrective wave(2). Such waves by their inherent nature can trigger frequent whipsaws. Kindly operate with discipline & risk management.


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th May 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] While NG receded sharply from the local resistance at 3.000-3.046 yesterday, it also managed to work out an equally strong bounce from the immediate key support at 2.890-2.910.

It is important to recall that NG currently remains in a larger degree corrective wave(2). By their inherent nature, such waves operate through frequent whipsaws between key levels and do not make any trending moves.

NG is back to square one and is currently probing the local resistance region again. NG will need to surpass this level and the adjacent key resistance at 3.100-3.130 decisively to begin the process of building a micro-bullish setup.

Failure to surpass 3.130 in this bounce shall set up another round of whipsaw back to the key support at 2.890-2.910.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 17th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] We had previously mentioned that NG needed to operate above the pivot key support at 2.840-2.860 during nano-level technical pullbacks to continue operating in a micro-level bullish setup. Additionally, it needed to surmount the nearest resistance to bolster this nascent micro-bullish setup.

NG has clearly managed to satisfy both these requirements with much more pronounced price action earlier today.

The next key resistance is at 3.158-3.198.

Any technical pullback will need to hold above the newly formed key support at 2.970-3.025 if NG intends to challenge this key resistance.

Only a strong decisive break of 2.970 shall expose the pivot key support at 2.840-2.860 again.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 6th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] NG has so far operated above the key support at 2.840-2.860 during nano-level technical pullbacks. That said, it has not been able to gain sufficient strength yet to challenge the resistances in the 3+ zone.

While NG made one sincere attempt to climb over 3 in the last few days, it failed to garner continuing traction to get past the nearest key resistance at 3.035-3.050. Surmounting this resistance is a necessary step if NG intends to strengthen the nascent micro-bullish setup.

Inability to surpass the immediate resistance shall expose the key support at 2.840-2.860, a break of which shall shift the focus back to the lower key supports at 2.750-2.778 and 2.660-2.690 and delay the micro-bullish transition.

NG storage report is due later today. So, expect volatility to make an appearance shortly.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update]  NG has satisfied both the conditions outlined in the previous updates to provide early signs of a micro-level bullish setup.  In order to strengthen this setup, NG will now need to operate above the new layer of key support at 2.840-2.860 on any technical pullback.

Inability to hold above 2.840 shall shift the focus back to the lower key support at  2.750-2.778 and 2.660-2.690 and delay the micro-bullish scenario.

 


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th Apr 2021

 

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] The next key resistance is at 3.035-3.050 followed by 3.096-3.110.

At a macro-level, NG has been in a larger degree corrective wave(2) for the last several weeks. You may recall that NG was provided with a plethora of micro-setups during winter to transition from (2) to a bullish wave(3). Each time, it failed to capitalize on the opportunity and preferred to remain in (2).   

NG will now need to operate above the nearest key support (as they form) to first strengthen the nascent micro-bullish setup and then generate yet another opportunity to transition from wave(2) to a bullish wave(3).

At this point, the nearest key support which holds relevance both from a micro & macro context is at 2.840-2.860.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th Apr 2021

 

[Natural Gas May Futures Update] NG has previously bounced off the key support at 2.450-2.460 and has managed to break the nearest key resistance after meandering around it for several hours.

If NG is indeed attempting to build a micro-level bullish setup, it shall have to satisfy the following TWO conditions

1] Hold the new layer of local support at  2.640-2.660  on any smaller degree technical pullback

2] Provide a strong decisive break of the next key resistance at  2.810-2.845

Inability to hold above 2.640 on a pullback shall pour cold water on this potential micro-level scenario and shift the focus back to the key support at 2.450-2.460.

At a macro-level, NG continues to operate in a larger degree corrective wave(2).

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 30th Mar 2021

 

[Natural Gas May Futures Update] NG has been grinding higher after bouncing off the key support at 2.450-2.460 a few days back. A new layer of local support has also formed at 2.520-2.560 (slightly calibrated) 


That said, the current bounce shall be regarded as meaningful only if NG is able to surmount the two nearest key resistances at 2.765-2.790 and 2.830-2.860.

Failure to surpass these immediate resistances shall mean a retest of the key support.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 16th Mar 2021

 

[Natural Gas April Futures Update] Let's review the overall picture in NG. Also, sharing thoughts on the nano-level price action along with its parameters.

At the macro-level, NG continues to operate in a corrective wave(2) after missing out on multiple opportunities in the last few weeks to transition to a larger degree bullish wave(3). NG will now have to first provide a meaningful bounce by breaking at least a couple of immediate key resistances and then build a micro-level bullish setup to attempt this transition again.

At the micro-level, after NG failed at the key resistance at 2.860-2.890 and dropped to the lower level supports, bears have been busy building additional layers of obstacles at the local resistance at 2.725-2.740 and the key resistance at 2.775-2.790. Last week, a small bounce failed to clear the micro-level local resistance at  2.725-2.740.

At the nano-level (smallest degree), NG is attempting a mini-bounce. NG shall have to clear at least the nearest  local resistance at 2.610-2.630 if it intends to have another go at the micro-level resistances again.

Inability to surpass this local level shall set up a test of the next key support at 2.410-2.445.


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 3rd Mar 2021

[Natural Gas April Futures Update] NG has previously bounced off the key support at 2.670-2.690 and is now negotiating with the local resistance at 2.860-2.890 for the last several hours.

NG will need to operate above the newly formed key support at 2.780-2.810 if it intends to break this local resistance and set up a test of the next key resistance at 2.950-2.980 (slightly calibrated).

Inability to hold above 2.780 shall expose the key support at 2.670-2.690.
 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Feb 2021

[Natural Gas March Futures Update] In our previous update (tagged), we had mentioned that NG has the license to have another go at the larger degree key resistance at 3.220-3.280 as long as it operates above the nearest key support at 2.940-2.980.

This is exactly what has played out so far. After retracing very close to the key support yesterday, NG launched itself to challenge the larger degree key resistance again.

In the last few minutes, NG has breached this resistance zone IN A FLASH and made a HOD (High Of Day) at 3.316.

We shall NOT consider this move as a SUSTAINED BREAK of the resistance yet since such a breach can sometimes occur because of stop loss runs. We would like to see NG break over the HOD (3.316) to elaborate macro-level bullish scenarios.

Until then, the key resistance shall be the HOD at 3.316. The nearest key support continues to remain at 2.940-2.980.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 8th Feb 2021

[Natural Gas March Futures Update] NG continues to WHIPSAW between the nearest support and resistance as cautioned in the previous updates.

It will need to operate above the key support at 2.740-2.750 to maintain the integrity of the micro-level bullish pattern and set up another test of the key resistance at 3.055-3.065 followed by 3.110-3.130.

The nearest local support is slightly calibrated to 2.810-2.850.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Jan 2021

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] In our previous update, we had articulated that NG needed to surpass the resistance at 2.710-2.730 at the very least if it was serious about resurrecting the micro-level bullish setup.  While NG came very close to probing this level yesterday, it failed to take out the resistance zone and reversed sharply from it. When price action fails near a resistance, the immediate key support is often exposed/vulnerable.

 

After breaking the nearest support, NG is now approaching a larger degree key support at 2.390-2.420. Any bounce here will need to rally above the key resistance at 2.710-2.730 to be considered meaningful.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 18th Jan 2021 

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] The weekend weather model runs are bearish. 

Technically, NG has bounced off the key support at 2.640-2.660 last week. The immediate key resistance continues to remain at 2.900-2.910 as shared in the previous update (tagged).

We will share more thoughts on the price action once the markets open & volumes pick up.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 12th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] In our previous update (tagged), we had mentioned that NG shall have another go at the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 if it is able to operate "preferably" above the local support at 2.580-2.610.  NG kissed the support earlier today, bounced off it, and is currently testing the immediate resistance. A sustained break of this resistance shall expose the next key resistance at 2.840-2.870 followed by 2.970-2.985. The key support continues to remain at 2.520-2.550.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 08th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] NG attempted to probe the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 yesterday and then receded from it. 

NG has the license to have another go at the resistance as long as it operates above the newly formed key support at 2.520-2.550 and preferably above the local support at 2.595-2.605. Only a break of the immediate resistance shall expose the next key resistance at 2.840-2.870 followed by 2.970-2.985.

NG storage report is due later today. So, expect volatility to make an appearance shortly.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 05th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] Bullish weekend weather reports facilitated a gap up in NG earlier today. When price action breaks a resistance, it has the propensity to gravitate towards the next. Evidently, NG reached the key resistance at 2.650-2.675 and then pulled back for it. While the bounce off the key support at 2.240-2.260 may look promising at a micro-level, NG will need to do more to begin building a bullish case at the macro-level. At the very least, NG shall have to surpass the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 decisively to consider any larger degree bullish scenarios.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 04th Jan 2021

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] The long weekend weather models have been bullish. Technically, NG bounced off the key support at 2.240-2.260 and has reached the key resistance at 2.510-2.550 shared in the previous update. Price action meandered around the resistance for several hours last week before market close. The next key resistance is at 2.650-2.675 followed by 2.780-2.800. 

We will share more details on the price action and the potential technical path after markets open and once volumes stabilize.