Natural Gas

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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 22nd Jun 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update]  NG price action has been quite choppy at the nano-level. In light of this choppiness, the nearest local resistance has been slightly adjusted.

While NG has been repeatedly receding (four times) from the local resistance zone at  3.280-3.315, it is also swiftly rebounding back to the resistance zone from regions slightly above the key support at 3.080-3.095.

A break above 3.315 shall expose the key resistance at 3.370-3.380 and swing the probabilities towards a test of the larger degree key resistance at 3.440-3.490.

At a macro-level, NG continues to remain in a larger degree wave(2). That said, a strong decisive break of the key resistance at 3.440-3.490 shall be an initial signal that NG is attempting to make a transition from a corrective wave(2) to a bullish wave(3), which shall bring serious acceleration to the upside.

Kindly know your parameters and operate with solid risk management

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 16th Jun 2021

 

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has receded from the larger degree key resistance region at 3.370-3.430  (slightly calibrated) and reached the local support at  3.175-3.205 earlier today.  It is currently attempting a bounce off this support.

This bounce will need to clear the newly formed  local resistance at 3.260-3.290 if NG intends to have another go at the larger degree key resistance.

Failure to surmount this local resistance shall set up another test of the local support, a break of which shall expose the lower key support at 3.080-3.095.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 14th Jun 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has garnered substantial traction after last week's rebound from the key support at 3.080-3.095 (previously local). It has broken the nearest resistances and is now attempting to extend to the larger degree key resistance region at 3.380-3.430.

NG will need to operate above the newly formed local support at 3.175-3.200 on any technical pullback if it intends to extend further to probe this larger degree resistance region. Only a break below 3.175 shall disrupt the current extension and expose the key support at 3.080-3.095 again.

At a macro-level, NG continues to remain in a larger degree wave(2). That said, a strong decisive break of the key resistance at 3.380-3.430 shall be an initial signal that NG is attempting to make a transition from a corrective wave(2) to a bullish wave(3), which shall bring serious acceleration to the upside.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 2nd Jun 2021
 

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] NG has now formed a new layer of local support at 3.000-3.040. It will need to operate above this level if it intends to extend further to test the next key resistance at 3.200-3.245.

Only a strong break below 3.000 shall shift the focus back to the key support at 2.890-2.910.

It is important to recall that NG is currently operating in a larger degree corrective wave(2). Such waves by their inherent nature can trigger frequent whipsaws. Kindly operate with discipline & risk management.


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th May 2021

[Natural Gas July Futures Update] While NG receded sharply from the local resistance at 3.000-3.046 yesterday, it also managed to work out an equally strong bounce from the immediate key support at 2.890-2.910.

It is important to recall that NG currently remains in a larger degree corrective wave(2). By their inherent nature, such waves operate through frequent whipsaws between key levels and do not make any trending moves.

NG is back to square one and is currently probing the local resistance region again. NG will need to surpass this level and the adjacent key resistance at 3.100-3.130 decisively to begin the process of building a micro-bullish setup.

Failure to surpass 3.130 in this bounce shall set up another round of whipsaw back to the key support at 2.890-2.910.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 17th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] We had previously mentioned that NG needed to operate above the pivot key support at 2.840-2.860 during nano-level technical pullbacks to continue operating in a micro-level bullish setup. Additionally, it needed to surmount the nearest resistance to bolster this nascent micro-bullish setup.

NG has clearly managed to satisfy both these requirements with much more pronounced price action earlier today.

The next key resistance is at 3.158-3.198.

Any technical pullback will need to hold above the newly formed key support at 2.970-3.025 if NG intends to challenge this key resistance.

Only a strong decisive break of 2.970 shall expose the pivot key support at 2.840-2.860 again.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 6th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] NG has so far operated above the key support at 2.840-2.860 during nano-level technical pullbacks. That said, it has not been able to gain sufficient strength yet to challenge the resistances in the 3+ zone.

While NG made one sincere attempt to climb over 3 in the last few days, it failed to garner continuing traction to get past the nearest key resistance at 3.035-3.050. Surmounting this resistance is a necessary step if NG intends to strengthen the nascent micro-bullish setup.

Inability to surpass the immediate resistance shall expose the key support at 2.840-2.860, a break of which shall shift the focus back to the lower key supports at 2.750-2.778 and 2.660-2.690 and delay the micro-bullish transition.

NG storage report is due later today. So, expect volatility to make an appearance shortly.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th May 2021

[Natural Gas June Futures Update]  NG has satisfied both the conditions outlined in the previous updates to provide early signs of a micro-level bullish setup.  In order to strengthen this setup, NG will now need to operate above the new layer of key support at 2.840-2.860 on any technical pullback.

Inability to hold above 2.840 shall shift the focus back to the lower key support at  2.750-2.778 and 2.660-2.690 and delay the micro-bullish scenario.

 


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 28th Apr 2021

 

[Natural Gas June Futures Update] The next key resistance is at 3.035-3.050 followed by 3.096-3.110.

At a macro-level, NG has been in a larger degree corrective wave(2) for the last several weeks. You may recall that NG was provided with a plethora of micro-setups during winter to transition from (2) to a bullish wave(3). Each time, it failed to capitalize on the opportunity and preferred to remain in (2).   

NG will now need to operate above the nearest key support (as they form) to first strengthen the nascent micro-bullish setup and then generate yet another opportunity to transition from wave(2) to a bullish wave(3).

At this point, the nearest key support which holds relevance both from a micro & macro context is at 2.840-2.860.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th Apr 2021

 

[Natural Gas May Futures Update] NG has previously bounced off the key support at 2.450-2.460 and has managed to break the nearest key resistance after meandering around it for several hours.

If NG is indeed attempting to build a micro-level bullish setup, it shall have to satisfy the following TWO conditions

1] Hold the new layer of local support at  2.640-2.660  on any smaller degree technical pullback

2] Provide a strong decisive break of the next key resistance at  2.810-2.845

Inability to hold above 2.640 on a pullback shall pour cold water on this potential micro-level scenario and shift the focus back to the key support at 2.450-2.460.

At a macro-level, NG continues to operate in a larger degree corrective wave(2).

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 30th Mar 2021

 

[Natural Gas May Futures Update] NG has been grinding higher after bouncing off the key support at 2.450-2.460 a few days back. A new layer of local support has also formed at 2.520-2.560 (slightly calibrated) 


That said, the current bounce shall be regarded as meaningful only if NG is able to surmount the two nearest key resistances at 2.765-2.790 and 2.830-2.860.

Failure to surpass these immediate resistances shall mean a retest of the key support.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 16th Mar 2021

 

[Natural Gas April Futures Update] Let's review the overall picture in NG. Also, sharing thoughts on the nano-level price action along with its parameters.

At the macro-level, NG continues to operate in a corrective wave(2) after missing out on multiple opportunities in the last few weeks to transition to a larger degree bullish wave(3). NG will now have to first provide a meaningful bounce by breaking at least a couple of immediate key resistances and then build a micro-level bullish setup to attempt this transition again.

At the micro-level, after NG failed at the key resistance at 2.860-2.890 and dropped to the lower level supports, bears have been busy building additional layers of obstacles at the local resistance at 2.725-2.740 and the key resistance at 2.775-2.790. Last week, a small bounce failed to clear the micro-level local resistance at  2.725-2.740.

At the nano-level (smallest degree), NG is attempting a mini-bounce. NG shall have to clear at least the nearest  local resistance at 2.610-2.630 if it intends to have another go at the micro-level resistances again.

Inability to surpass this local level shall set up a test of the next key support at 2.410-2.445.


 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 3rd Mar 2021

[Natural Gas April Futures Update] NG has previously bounced off the key support at 2.670-2.690 and is now negotiating with the local resistance at 2.860-2.890 for the last several hours.

NG will need to operate above the newly formed key support at 2.780-2.810 if it intends to break this local resistance and set up a test of the next key resistance at 2.950-2.980 (slightly calibrated).

Inability to hold above 2.780 shall expose the key support at 2.670-2.690.
 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Feb 2021

[Natural Gas March Futures Update] In our previous update (tagged), we had mentioned that NG has the license to have another go at the larger degree key resistance at 3.220-3.280 as long as it operates above the nearest key support at 2.940-2.980.

This is exactly what has played out so far. After retracing very close to the key support yesterday, NG launched itself to challenge the larger degree key resistance again.

In the last few minutes, NG has breached this resistance zone IN A FLASH and made a HOD (High Of Day) at 3.316.

We shall NOT consider this move as a SUSTAINED BREAK of the resistance yet since such a breach can sometimes occur because of stop loss runs. We would like to see NG break over the HOD (3.316) to elaborate macro-level bullish scenarios.

Until then, the key resistance shall be the HOD at 3.316. The nearest key support continues to remain at 2.940-2.980.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 8th Feb 2021

[Natural Gas March Futures Update] NG continues to WHIPSAW between the nearest support and resistance as cautioned in the previous updates.

It will need to operate above the key support at 2.740-2.750 to maintain the integrity of the micro-level bullish pattern and set up another test of the key resistance at 3.055-3.065 followed by 3.110-3.130.

The nearest local support is slightly calibrated to 2.810-2.850.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Jan 2021

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] In our previous update, we had articulated that NG needed to surpass the resistance at 2.710-2.730 at the very least if it was serious about resurrecting the micro-level bullish setup.  While NG came very close to probing this level yesterday, it failed to take out the resistance zone and reversed sharply from it. When price action fails near a resistance, the immediate key support is often exposed/vulnerable.

 

After breaking the nearest support, NG is now approaching a larger degree key support at 2.390-2.420. Any bounce here will need to rally above the key resistance at 2.710-2.730 to be considered meaningful.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 18th Jan 2021 

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] The weekend weather model runs are bearish. 

Technically, NG has bounced off the key support at 2.640-2.660 last week. The immediate key resistance continues to remain at 2.900-2.910 as shared in the previous update (tagged).

We will share more thoughts on the price action once the markets open & volumes pick up.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 12th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] In our previous update (tagged), we had mentioned that NG shall have another go at the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 if it is able to operate "preferably" above the local support at 2.580-2.610.  NG kissed the support earlier today, bounced off it, and is currently testing the immediate resistance. A sustained break of this resistance shall expose the next key resistance at 2.840-2.870 followed by 2.970-2.985. The key support continues to remain at 2.520-2.550.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 08th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] NG attempted to probe the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 yesterday and then receded from it. 

NG has the license to have another go at the resistance as long as it operates above the newly formed key support at 2.520-2.550 and preferably above the local support at 2.595-2.605. Only a break of the immediate resistance shall expose the next key resistance at 2.840-2.870 followed by 2.970-2.985.

NG storage report is due later today. So, expect volatility to make an appearance shortly.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 05th Jan 2021  

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] Bullish weekend weather reports facilitated a gap up in NG earlier today. When price action breaks a resistance, it has the propensity to gravitate towards the next. Evidently, NG reached the key resistance at 2.650-2.675 and then pulled back for it. While the bounce off the key support at 2.240-2.260 may look promising at a micro-level, NG will need to do more to begin building a bullish case at the macro-level. At the very least, NG shall have to surpass the key resistance at 2.780-2.800 decisively to consider any larger degree bullish scenarios.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 04th Jan 2021

[Natural Gas February Futures Update] The long weekend weather models have been bullish. Technically, NG bounced off the key support at 2.240-2.260 and has reached the key resistance at 2.510-2.550 shared in the previous update. Price action meandered around the resistance for several hours last week before market close. The next key resistance is at 2.650-2.675 followed by 2.780-2.800. 

We will share more details on the price action and the potential technical path after markets open and once volumes stabilize.