SPX/S&P 500/US 500

All updates posted here are NOT real time and have a time-lag up to few hours to days depending on the bandwidth available with us to post here and on twitter. The updates are meant for information only. For the purpose of trading, real time updates are critical and mandatory. 

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[S&P 500, SPX, ES, US500 Update] This is a macro-level update at the largest degree to get the big picture on the indices. Please note that some of these structures shall take many weeks or months to play out.

As we approach the US general elections in about 8 weeks from now, SPX/ES shall exhibit significant volatility. It is important to comprehend where the markets are in the larger technical structure to help plan & position accordingly.

Zooming out to the largest degree, SPX/ES continues to remain in a macro-level bullish set up and is currently in wave(1) which began at ~2170 and has extended very close to the 3600 zone. Since yesterday, SPX/ES had been negotiating with the larger degree key resistance at 3586-3601 shared in the daily indices update. 

SPX has now receded exactly from this key resistance at 3586-3601

Wave(1) is beginning to look full and is getting closer to completion but extensions to slightly higher resistances cannot be completely ruled out as long as the nearest supports hold.

Once (1) completes fully, SPX should move into a larger degree correction in wave (2) over the next few weeks. 

Corrective waves can be both shallow or deep in nature. In SPX, the corrective wave (2) can be as shallow as 3200-3350 but has the potential to stretch as deep as 2700-3000, both of which are macro-level critical support areas in the bullish pattern. The smaller degree sub-waves that shall form within this larger pattern will help assess the potential depth of this retracement. 

Keep in mind that corrective waves shall see very frequent whipsaws. Hence, it is important to strictly follow the "key levels discipline" in entry & exits, especially for short term traders. 

Once the corrective wave (2) completes, this macro-pattern shall give birth to a larger degree wave (3). This wave (3) has the potential to break the peak of wave (1) and then target significantly higher levels closer to 4250-4500 in the months to come.

Again, this entire structure shall take several months to play out. Also, the macro-level technical pattern is operating in very early stages and is being shared to help understand the future potential of a set up provided it meets specific boundary conditions. If the boundary conditions are violated, the pattern also gets questioned. We shall follow up on this macro-set up over the next few weeks to assess the continuing integrity of this pattern & estimate the potential targets.

For micro-structures, please refer to the weekly and daily indices updates

 

Original post to Members - 28th Aug 2020  

Posted here -  03rd Sep 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] The larger degree bullish juggernaut continues in SPX/ES allowing for only brief retracements. Each time, SPX/ES has bounced off the nearest support to extend itself to a higher key resistance. Only a break of at least a couple of nearby key supports can put the brakes on these extensions & give birth to a local (short term) top. In simpler words, the bullish extensions in SPX can continue as long as the nearest supports hold.

Zooming into the smaller degree, 3402-3419 is the nearest key support. A sustained break of this level has the potential to trigger a deeper correction to the next key supports at 3341-3344 followed by 3285-3300.

On the bullish extensions, the immediate key resistance is at 3510-3521 followed by 3535-3540 and 3586-3601

Zooming out to a larger degree (big picture), SPX/ES is buttressed by two important supports at 3090-3115 and 3176-3194 which continue to maintain the sacrosanctity of this macro-bullish set up.

 

Original post to Members - 13th Aug 2020  

Posted here -  19th Aug 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update

Quite a battle at the resistance near 3380 which is extremely close to the all time high (ATH). Bulls have been relentless attempting to push through this resistance & the ATH of ~3394. The resistances are holding so far but not doing enough to trigger a larger degree pullback yet. A nano-level (smallest degree) pullback came earlier this week, but was buttressed well by the upper bound of the immediate key support in the 3285-3318 zone.

The all time high area can always be tricky & it is important to understand all the parameters & immediate scenarios.

In an event 3394-3397 sees a sustained break, there remains a possibility of an extension to make a higher high in the 3410-3430 resistance zone. 

Correction triggered at any of the above resistance zones shall first have to break the nano-level support around 3340 & then follow through by taking out 3285 if it intends to provide a larger degree pullback to the supports at 3176-3194.

For intermediate smaller degree key resistances & supports, please refer to the daily indices update.

Please know your parameters and plan accordingly

 

Original post to Members - 05th Aug 2020  

Posted here -  08 Aug 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update

In line with previous update (tagged), SPX has moved higher to the 3320 zone after breaking the previous key resistance at 3266.

While SPX continues to remain in a macro-level bullish set up, it is now approaching a larger degree key resistance at 3335-3370. This resistance has formed very close to the all time high ~ 3400.

Only a sustained break of 3370 shall open the gates to challenge the all time high.

Failure to surpass the key resistance shall again expose the larger degree key support at 3176-3190.

For intermediate smaller degree key resistances & supports, please refer to the daily indices update.

 

Original post to Members - 30th July 2020  

Posted here -  31st July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update

Let us quickly re-summarize the technicals and parameters for SPX.

Earlier this week, SPX reversed from the key resistance zone at 3248-3266 as shared in the previous update. However, it failed to break the key support zone at 3176-3190. SPX has bounced off this support today and is probing the key resistance again. 

SPX will need to provide a strong impulse break of 3266 to target the higher key resistance at 3305-3319. 

Failure to break 3266 shall set up a retest of the key support at 3176-3190, a break of which shall target the larger degree critical key support at 3095-3115.

With four large tech giants (Apple, Google, FB, Amazon) reporting earnings after US market close today, SPX, Nasdaq & broader indices may see substantial volatility. Kindly operate with the best trading discipline during this window

 

Original post to Members - 26th July 2020  

Posted here -  28th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update

SPX has been operating perfectly within the boundaries of the key levels. In line with the previous update (tagged), last week we witnessed SPX getting rejected in the resistance zone at 3271-3287 resulting in a retracement to the support zone at  3176-3190. SPX is now attempting a bounce off this support again.

"Human emotions are rhythmical and move in waves of a definite number & direction. Action is followed by a reaction." Markets simply operate in these waves from one key level to another.

At a macro-level, 3095-3115 is the important support that is holding the sacrosanctity of the bullish set up. At a micro-level, support remains at 3176-3190. Both of these levels have been shared in a number of previous updates. 

As long as these supports hold, bulls shall remain in control. Bears will have to at least break the support at 3176-3190 to begin building any potential bearish scenarios.

The immediate resistance is now at the 3248-3266 area. 

From a fundamental point of view, there are a plethora of events later this week including FOMC, Fed interest rate decision, US GDP, Earnings of major sector leaders - Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Facebook, PayPal, Mastercard, Ingersoll Rand, Mcdonalds, GE & others. These events have the potential to generate substantial volatility.

Original post to Members - 21st July 2020  

Posted here -  28th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500, ES Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

The key support region at 3176-3190 as shared in the previous update (tagged) triggered a sizable bounce to take out the technical double top & help SPX advance further to the next resistance zone at 3271-3287.

At a macro-level, bulls have constructed two solid support regions, the first one at 3095-3115 which we had highlighted previously in a number of updates & the second one at 3176-3190. 

As long as these support areas hold, SPX shall have a bullish tailwind to continuously grind higher from one resistance to another, after brief micro-corrections. Bears will need to make an effort to at least break the support at 3176-3190 to begin building any potential bearish scenarios.

 

Original post to Members - 14th July 2020  

Posted here -  17th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In the previous update, we had highlighted the importance of the support zone at 3095-3115 which needed to hold for SPX to retest the resistances in the 3180-3200+ zones. As you might have noticed, the support region held strong for a significant part of last week despite multiple attempts to break it & finally triggered a healthy bounce off it.

 

What's Next?

SPX has now formed a new layer of support at 3165-3195. As long as SPX operates above this support, it has the potential to display continued bullishness and test the key resistances in the 3215-3280 zone. A sustained impulse break below 3165 shall open up the potential of an interim top & a correction. The daily indices update has the micro-levels. 

All market moves shall be in the form of impulse & corrective waves (alternating up & down moves or vice-versa). So, please do wait patiently for key levels to make entry & exit trading decisions with stop losses.

Also, while we may share levels on multiple indices, important to note that most major indices broadly follow SPX [S&P 500 Futures]. It is not prudent to trade multiple indices at the same time since it shall only multiply the risks. Kindly choose one best index that suits your risk plan.

Original post to Members - 7th July 2020  

Posted here -  13th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In our previous update, we had shared that SPX was again approaching important resistance zones starting around 3180. So far, SPX has reversed exactly around this resistance and is now slowly moving towards the support zone at 3095-3115. 

This is an important level. If the support zone sees a break, it is a signal of a deeper correction to 3000 or even as deep as supports near 2900. For specific support areas, please refer to the levels in the daily indices update.

The bottom line is if SPX intends to make another serious attempt at the resistance zones at 3180+, it will need to hold on to the supports at 3095-3115. A break here opens the gates to 3000-2900. 

All market moves are in the form of impulse & corrective waves (alternating up & down moves or viceversa). So, do wait patiently for key levels to make entry & exit trading decisions with stop losses.

Also, while we may share levels on multiple indices, important to note that most major indices broadly follow SPX [S&P 500 Futures]. It is not prudent to trade multiple indices at the same time since it shall only multiply the risks. Kindly choose one best index that suits your risk plan.

Original post to Members - 30th June 2020  

Posted here -  13th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] A quick addendum to the previous note

SPX saw a swift move down early yesterday which was strongly disrupted by the support zone near 2980 triggering a sharp bounce back to the 3060 resistance. So, SPX is now meandering in an extremely narrow zone with two equal (opposite) probability scenarios which is expected to resolve soon.

As long as the key resistance at 3060-3076 holds, there shall be downward pressure towards the supports. However, a break above 3075 shall swing the probabilities for a larger degree bounce.

An important consideration this week is the US employment numbers on July 2nd (Thursday) & market holiday on July 3rd (Friday). Markets have the potential to be volatile closer to these events. So, please operate with super-small positions & tight stop losses.

Also sharing stock market behavior around 4th of July for the last 70 years (1950-2019) with members. The data shared is for returns during five trading days before (days -5 to -1) to five trading days after (days 1 to 5) the end of June. 

US markets have GENERALLY maintained a positive bias during the 4th of July holiday. However, that dosen't necessarily mean it will happen every year.

Original post to Members - 29th June 2020  

Posted here -  13th July 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In line with the previous update (tagged), SPX reversed around the resistance zone at 3088 on Friday & reached the larger degree support at 2980-3000 before close. Since then, it has been meandering around the support zone.

SPX has now formed an initial resistance at 3033-3065.

 

Only a break above 3065 shall open up a larger degree bounce scenario. In other words, as long as the resistance zone holds, the previous pattern remains intact & SPX shall continue to make attempts at the 2975-2980 support, a break of which shall target the next support at 2920-2937 followed by 2830-2850.

The only word of caution this week is the NFP/US employment data which is scheduled on Thursday this week. Also, Friday, July 3rd is a US market holiday on account of Independence day. NFP & holiday volumes may introduce volatility.

 

 

Original post to Members - 26th June 2020  

Posted here -  26th June 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In the previous macro-level update (tagged), we had shared that SPX had the potential to begin a correction near the key resistance zone at 3155-3160 towards the supports at 3000-3040. SPX hit both these levels this week within a few points. It first reversed exactly around 3150 & then hit the low near 3000.

What's the NEXT potential pattern?

SPX has now formed an initial resistance at 3088-3120 zone.

The first line of support comes in at 3036-3042. A break below this zone is a initial sign of something wrong with the rally scenario. The larger degree support is at 2980-3000, a sustained break of which can target the next support at 2830-2850.

Micro-levels shared in the daily update shall provide all key levels including the intermediate ones.

 

Original post to Members - 23rd June 2020  

Posted here -  23rd June 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In the previous macro-level update (tagged) last week, we had shared that SPX shall correct to 3000-3040 support levels after hitting the resistance zone between 3155-3180. SPX hit both these levels last week within a few points. It first reversed exactly around 3155 & then hit the low near 3030.

What's the NEXT potential pattern?

After bouncing off the supports at 3030, SPX is now making its way again to the key resistance zone at 3155-3160 followed by a critical key resistance zone at 3203-3260. One of these resistance zones has the potential to trigger a correction wave (down) back to the supports at 3000-3040 or even lower.

Original post to Members - 16th June 2020  

Posted here -  17th June 2020 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

In the last macro-level update (tagged), we had articulated that SPX was likely to begin a correction wave in the range between 3210-3275 & target the 2900-2800 zone. SPX reversed around 3230 & reached very close to the target zone & then bounced off the micro-level key support at 2930. This pattern provided good short opportunites all of last week.

 

What's the next pattern?

There is a new bull in town, the US Federal Reserve, which began a fresh corporate bond buying program yesterday that helped boost risk appetite in the market in the last 24 hours.  

From a technical perspective, SPX is now approaching a macro-level key resistance zone between 3155-3180. If this region holds, SPX has the potential to correct at least to the supports at 3000-3040 levels. 

Original post to Members - 8th June 2020  

Posted here -  8th June 2020 

 

[Global Indices] [SPX Futures, US500 Update] This is a MACRO level update to understand the big picture wave patterns in the indices. For micro-levels, kindly follow the daily indices update.

SPX appears to be in its ultimate extension & last leg to complete a wave(i) closer to one of the micro-level key resistances in the range between 3210-3275.  A sustained break of the key support at 3145-3155 should provide an initial indication of a high or wave(i) completion.

Once a wave(i) is completed, it should trigger a wave(ii) correction/retracement over the next several days that has the potential to first target the 3080 zone, a break of which shall open the gates to the 2900-2800 zone.

 

Only a direct break over 3275 shall require a re-evaluation of this pattern.

Please refer to the micro-levels in the [Indices] update