SPX, S&P 500, ES, US500

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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 10th June 2021        

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to remain in a larger degree bullish setup and is on track to reach the 4400-4600 region later this year.

At a micro-level, it is currently attempting to probe a local resistance at 4242-4265. A strong decisive break of this level shall set up a test of the next key resistance at 4310-4325.

In the event of a technical pullback, SPX/ES has the first line of defense at the micro-level key support at 4090-4130 followed by 3995-4028.

Only a strong break below 3995 shall trigger a slightly deeper correction and delay the transition to the next leg up in SPX/ES.

 

Intermediate technical levels (if any) shall be shared in the Indices table summary. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 26th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] In the previous update (tagged), we had shared a detailed breakdown of the wave structure and also set TWO conditions that needed to be satisfied for SPX/ES to transition into the next leg up in (v) of (3).

SPX/ES has satisfied the FIRST condition by breaking the nearest local resistance ~ 4190.

SPX/ES will now need to operate above the key support at 4000-4028 (previously local) and preferably above the newly formed local support at 4090-4125 on any technical pullback to satisfy the SECOND condition and to build a micro-bullish setup that shall target the next key resistance at 4266-4278 followed by 4310-4322.

Only a strong decisive break of the key support at 4000-4028 shall pour cold water on this developing setup and trigger a deeper correction in wave(iv) of (3) towards the next key support at 3890-3930 and delay the transition to (v) of (3).

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

At a micro-level, SPX/ES has receded from the key resistance at 4240-4268 shared in the Indices Update and is now repeatedly probing the key support at 4065-4105 for the last several hours.

While SPX/ES is attempting small bounces off this support, it will need to do more and garner sufficient traction to clear the newly formed local resistance at 4170-4190 if it intends to have another go at the key resistance at 4240-4268.

Inability to clear the local resistance shall mean a retest of the key support at 4065-4105.

Only a strong break below 4065 shall open the gates to a deeper retracement towards the key support at 3890-3930.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Amid the smaller degree volatility, it is important to NOT lose sight of the larger degree context in SPX/ES. 

We are providing a detailed breakdown of the wave structure that is currently in play. Kindly refer to the wave & sub-wave structure schematic representation to assimilate the overall context.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) represent macro-level (larger degree) structures
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) represent micro-level (smaller degree) structures

SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish wave (3) and remains on course to reach the 4400-4600 zone later this year. 

Zooming into the micro-level wave structure within (3), SPX/ES is currently retracing in a sub-wave (iv) of (3). Fourth waves are typically volatile and irregular.

To exit the corrective wave(iv) and transition into wave(v) of (3), which shall target the 4400-4600 zone, SPX/ES shall have to satisfy TWO conditions:

1. Work out a strong decisive break of the local resistance at 4170-4190
2. Operate above the newly formed local support at 4020-4028 on any technical pullback

Inability to satisfy these conditions shall trigger a deeper correction in wave(iv) of (3) towards the next key support at 3890-3930 and delay the transition to (v) of (3).

Again, please focus on the larger degree trend and not on the smaller degree squiggles

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th April 2021

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] 

“Bull markets are born on PESSIMISM, grow on SKEPTICISM, mature on OPTIMISM, and die on EUPHORIA” - Sir John Templeton

Translating this quote in the language of waves.

Bull markets are born in wave(1), grow in wave(2), mature in wave(3) & (4), and die in wave(5)

The above quote describes the evolution of mass psychology & emotions in a bull market. Application of Elliott wave & Fibonacci mathematics to these emotions helps in deciphering & forecasting the evolving path and the twists & turns of the market.

We have so far pursued the impulse wave(1) from the April 2020 lows followed by a corrective wave(2). The pullback in wave(2) was a necessary phase to prepare a launchpad to propel SPX/ES in a smooth larger degree wave(3) rally, which is currently underway.

At a nano-level (smallest degree), SPX/ES has now formed a new layer of local support at 4060-4095 above the key support at 3990-4013. These supports shall form the first line of defense in the event of any smaller degree technical pullback. Only a break below 3990 shall expose the micro-level key support at 3840-3875.

As long as SPX/ES operates above these supports on a pullback, it shall continue to extend higher in wave(3) to set up a test of the next key resistance at 4202-4218 followed by 4248-4265.

A local resistance has now formed at 4185-4191.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 5th April 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Recapping the overall context & important parameters in SPX/ES.

From the April 2020 lows, we have so far pursued an impulse wave(1), a corrective wave(2) that was full of whipsaws lasting several weeks followed by a smooth wave(3) rally with shallow pullbacks which is currently underway within a larger degree bullish setup. As stated in the previous macro-level updates, SPX/ES continues to remain on course to reach 4100+ later this year.

At a micro-level, the nearest key support continues to remain at 3840-3875. Please note that the previous technical pullback from the resistance managed to complete exactly at this support. As long as this support holds, SPX/ES has the potential to set up the test of the next key resistance at 4012-4035.

Only a strong decisive break of 3840 shall trigger a deeper micro-correction to the lower level key support at 3760-3790 followed by 3645-3675. 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th March 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a bullish setup within a larger degree wave(3). In line with the previous update (tagged), SPX/ES did make another attempt to break the key resistance at 3956-3965 (slightly calibrated) yesterday but failed at it again.

SPX/ES will need to get past this nearest hurdle if it intends to set up a test of the next key resistance at 4005-4030. Inability to surmount this hurdle may trigger another round of micro-correction to the lower level key support at 3760-3790 followed by 3645-3675.

A local support has now formed at 3875-3895.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 26th Feb 2021     

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES has been continuously oscillating between the nearest micro-resistance and support. 

First, SPX/ES receded from the key resistance ~ 3960 (KR2) last week to reach the support at ~3805 (KS1). Then it bounced off this support level to climb back up to the newly formed local resistance ~3930 (KR1) and subsequently reversed again to get back to the support at ~3805 (KS1). 

It is a good example that highlights the role of technical levels in governing the path of the markets. Also, conveys the immense value of a technical framework in decision making & risk/reward determination

At a micro-level, SPX/ES has immediate key supports that are adjacent to each other at 3805-3815 and 3760-3780. Only a strong break below 3760 shall invoke a deeper micro-correction scenario exposing the lower key supports at 3675-3695 followed by 3570-3596.

At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 5th Feb 2021            

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a micro-level, SPX/ES has receded exactly from the key resistance at 3860-3878 shared in the daily indices update. It has broken the nearest key support and is now attempting a bounce off the next key support at 3675-3695.

That said, SPX/ES will need to surmount the newly formed key resistance at 3810-3825 to pull itself out of this micro-correction mode. Inability to surpass this level shall make the nearest key support at 3675-3695 vulnerable, a break of which shall expose the next key supports at 3550-3585 followed by 3460-3484.

At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Jan 2021   

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Markets have witnessed a sharp fall earlier today on the back of the growing unease over the potential economic impact of a new COVID strain in the UK. Additionally, the "Buy the Rumor Sell the News" phenomenon related to the stimulus deal might have also contributed to the drop.

Technically, the micro-level plummet in ES has stalled exactly near the key support at 3590-3594 shared in the previous update and a bounce is currently underway. That said, ES/SPX will need to surpass at least the nearest key resistance at 3675-3695 if intends to recover from this plunge