SPX, S&P 500, ES, US500

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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 22nd Sep 2021   

 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES has previously receded from the key resistance at 4543-4565 and broken the nearest support signaling that wave(3) has completed exactly at this level. It is currently operating in a corrective wave(4) which has the proclivity to trigger frequent whipsaws. 

At the micro-level, SPX/ES has now formed a local resistance at 4490-5520. Only a strong decisive break of this resistance shall provide a preliminary signal that SPX/ES is on the verge of completing the correction and starting the next leg up in wave (5).

Inability to reach or break this immediate resistance shall be an indication of another whipsaw which has the potential to test the key support at 4195-4240. The local support is now at 4280-4315.

Amid the micro-level volatility and headline noise, it is important to NOT lose sight of the larger degree context. SPX/ES continues to remain in a macro-level bullish setup and is on course to reach the 4800-5000 zone in wave(5) in the months to come.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 16th Sep 2021   

 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES continues to operate in wave(3) within a larger degree bullish setup. It has reached the key resistance at 4548-4565 last week and then receded from this level. As elaborated in the previous updates, SPX/ES has larger degree resistances around 4600 and proximity to such bigger hurdles can trigger frequent pullbacks.

At the micro-level, the pullback from the resistance has reached the local support at 4380-4425 where SPX/ES is currently attempting a bounce. That said, it will now need to surpass the newly formed local resistance at 4505-4520 if it intends to have another go at the key resistance.

Inability to generate substantial traction in the current rebound and a decisive break below the local support shall be a signal that SPX/ES has completed wave(3). Such a break shall trigger a corrective wave(4) that has the potential to test the lower key support at 4195-4240.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 24th Aug 2021   

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES has worked out a strong rebound off the local support at 4335-4370 and taken out the immediate resistance ~4425-4465 clearly signaling that wave(3) is still alive and intends to extend. That said, the congestion and the propensity to push back shall continue to prevail given its proximity to the larger degree resistances or bigger hurdles (4600+).

SPX is now operating in a region that can easily give rise to a TUG OF WAR of emotions between early entrants and late participants which is what triggers a wave(4) correction. This phenomenon has been elucidated in many updates previously. Rebroadcasting the note below for easy reference.

A wave(3) is generated by mass psychology that the trend is both evident and confident. Majority of the traders/investors -- smart money, institutional investors, funds, some public money -- operate with hyper-enthusiasm to participate in this trend. This is exactly why wave(iii) moves are strong & smooth with shallow pullbacks. All dips get bought swiftly. This lopsided emotion leads to an over-extended rally until price action approaches meaningful larger degree resistances.

Such over-extended moves in wave(3) causes suspicion & confusion among some market participants, especially EARLY entrants who managed to buy dips at significantly lower levels in wave(1) & (2). Out of fear of losing gains and an assumption that a top may be near, they start booking gains (at least partially) as wave(3) approaches meaningful resistances. This results in prices receding from the highs.

When the prices dip, it catches the attention of LATE entrants who missed a large part of the wave(3) rally. They find the dips attractive and start accumulating with an assumption that there shall be a repeat of the previous rally.

This tug of war of emotions between early & late entrants and conflict between fear & greed gives birth to a wave(4) consolidation and the accompanying whipsaws.

Back to the update

Overall, the technical parameters are as follows:-

As long as SPX/ES operates above the local support at 4335-4370, it can continue to extend further in wave(3) towards the next key resistance at 4490-4510 followed by 4548-4565.

A strong decisive break of the local support shall signal the completion of wave(3) and the beginning of wave(4) retracement that has the potential to test the key support at 4165-4220.

Amid this tug of war, please do not lose sight of the fact that SPX/ES remains in a larger degree bullish setup and is on course to target the 4800-5000 region in wave(5) in the months to come.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th Aug 2021   

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update]* While SPX/ES continues to operate in a macro-level bullish setup, it is beginning to display congestion in the 4450-4500 zone given its proximity to the larger degree resistances (BIGGER HURDLES) around 4600+. We have repeatedly articulated in the previous updates how regions preceding the macro-level obstacles have the propensity to constantly push back.

SPX/ES has reached the _local support_ at _4335-4370 (slightly calibrated)_ earlier today and is currently attempting a bounce off it. Any rebound will now need to surmount the newly formed _local resistance_ at _4425-4465_ to restore further extension in wave(3).

Inability to gain sufficient traction to clear this local resistance shall signal the completion of wave(3) and the beginning of wave(4) retracement in SPX/ES. Such a correction shall break the nearest local support and set up a test of the *key support* at *4165-4220.*

Only a strong decisive break above the _local resistance_ at _4425-4465_ shall reopen the gates to the larger degree hurdles (4600+).

_*Caution:* If SPX/ES enters the fourth wave, there shall be frequent whipsaws. Kindly be vigilant of risks involved in operating in the fourth wave and plan to position accordingly._
 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 13th Aug 2021     

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES continues to operate in wave(3) within a larger degree bullish setup. It is slowly grinding higher piercing through the resistance zone and has been extremely stingy with pullbacks, as it should be in a bullish wave(3).

That said, it is important to note that SPX/ES is now closing in on larger degree resistances (BIGGER HURDLES) that reside around 4600 onwards. The path towards this hurdle may see periodic pushback attempts.

SPX/ES will now need to operate above the local support at 4350-4390 during any technical pullback if it intends to progress further towards the next key resistance at 4515-4550.

Inability to hold above 4350 in a pullback shall open the gates to a deeper correction and set up a test of the next key support at 4175-4220 followed by 4090-4130.

 

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 21st Jul 2021     


[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES continues to operate in wave(3) within a macro-level bullish setup.

While the larger degree resistances (BIGGER HURDLES) reside slightly higher around 4600 onwards, it is important to note that the penultimate resistance zones preceding the bigger hurdles have the propensity to congest in light of their proximity to the larger degree resistance region.

Simply put, the intermediate resistances that reside in the path towards 4600+ may generate frequent pullbacks to the key supports.  So, scaling from here to 4600 may not be all smooth sailing and may see periodic pushback attempts.

The previous pullback in SPX/ES stalled exactly at the key support at 4175-4220 (slightly calibrated) as shared in the last update and in the indices summary.

While SPX/ES has triggered a rebound from this support, it will need to surmount the immediate local resistance at 4343-4370 followed by the next key resistance at 4420-4450 if it intends to take the battle to the larger degree key resistance zone (4600+)

Inability to clear these resistances will set up another test of the key support at 4175-4220 followed by 4090-4130.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

 



REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 10th Jul 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] In macro-level updates covered in the last few months, we have consistently maintained that SPX/ES remains in a larger degree bullish setup and shall target the 4400-4600 region in wave(3). As SPX/ES inches towards 4400 in the heart of wave(3), it's time to review the big picture again. We are also addressing a couple of macro-level FAQs in this update.

First, a quick recap of how a bullish wave(3) behaves

Shallow pullback is a key characteristic of a bullish wave(3), which thrives on the mass psychology that the trend is both evident and confident. Most corrections in wave(3) get defended successfully by the nearest local support, some may extend to the first key support and occasionally to the second key support. Any such pullback is followed by a strong rebound that delivers a new higher high. In a nutshell, shallow correction followed by a new high remains the MO (modus operandi) of a bullish wave(3).

SPX/ES continues to remain in the heart of wave(3) and has now formed a new layer of local support at 4280-4315 above the key support at 4185-4215. These support areas shall be the first line of defense in the event of a smaller degree technical pullback.

The next key resistance resides at 4460-4490, a break of which shall expose the FIRST larger degree key resistance at 4605-4635. Any intermediate resistances that may form shall be shared in the indices summary.

How far can SPX/ES extend in wave(3)?

Wave(3) shall begin running into larger degree key resistances or BIGGER HURDLES from 4600 onwards. Potential extensions to 4800-4950 area cannot be ruled out. The primary bullish scenario that we have been tracking from the  March 2020 lows points to completion of wave(3) in this region or near the extensions.

What happens after wave(3) reaches completion?

SPX/ES shall enter a corrective structure in wave(4) and trigger a sizable retracement of 400-600 points that shall build the foundation for a new bullish wave(5).

This is a macro-level update to help understand the larger context that is currently underway in SPX/ES. The regular updates and indices summary shall help navigate the micro-level twists & turns.
 

   

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 2nd Jul 2021     


[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] As shared in our previous macro-level updates, SPX continues to operate in the heart of a larger degree bullish wave(3) and remains on track to reach the 4400-4600 zone later this year.

Shallow pullback is a key characteristic of a bullish wave(3), which thrives on the mass psychology that the trend is both evident and confident. Most corrections in wave(3) get defended successfully by the nearest local support, some may extend to the first key support and occasionally to the second key support. Any such pullback is followed by a strong rebound that delivers a new higher high.

In a nutshell, shallow correction followed by a new high remains the MO (modus operandi) of a bullish wave(3).

For instance, the previous technical pullback was defended effectively by the nearest support at 4090-4130. SPX/ES rebounded exactly from the support zone and has now scaled to a new high.

The next micro-level key resistance is at 4350-4370. A strong decisive break of this resistance should open the gates to the key resistance at 4460-4480. Any intermediate resistances that may form shall be shared in the indices summary.

The immediate local support continues to remain at 4185-4215 followed by the key support at 4090-4130.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 21st Jun 2021     


[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At the macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

At the micro-level, SPX/ES has receded exactly from the local resistance at 4242-4265 and has reached the local support at 4090-4130 earlier today. Both these levels were previously shared in the indices summary table.

While this support has triggered a strong reaction, SPX/ES will need to capitalize on the rebound and surmount the local resistance in the current bounce to enable further advance into the 4300-4400 zone.

Inability to surpass the local resistance in this bounce shall set up another test of the local support at 4090-4130.

Only a strong break below 4090 shall trigger a deeper correction to the next key support at 3980-4028.

Kindly note the micro-level parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 10th June 2021        

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to remain in a larger degree bullish setup and is on track to reach the 4400-4600 region later this year.

At a micro-level, it is currently attempting to probe a local resistance at 4242-4265. A strong decisive break of this level shall set up a test of the next key resistance at 4310-4325.

In the event of a technical pullback, SPX/ES has the first line of defense at the micro-level key support at 4090-4130 followed by 3995-4028.

Only a strong break below 3995 shall trigger a slightly deeper correction and delay the transition to the next leg up in SPX/ES.

 

Intermediate technical levels (if any) shall be shared in the Indices table summary. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 26th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] In the previous update (tagged), we had shared a detailed breakdown of the wave structure and also set TWO conditions that needed to be satisfied for SPX/ES to transition into the next leg up in (v) of (3).

SPX/ES has satisfied the FIRST condition by breaking the nearest local resistance ~ 4190.

SPX/ES will now need to operate above the key support at 4000-4028 (previously local) and preferably above the newly formed local support at 4090-4125 on any technical pullback to satisfy the SECOND condition and to build a micro-bullish setup that shall target the next key resistance at 4266-4278 followed by 4310-4322.

Only a strong decisive break of the key support at 4000-4028 shall pour cold water on this developing setup and trigger a deeper correction in wave(iv) of (3) towards the next key support at 3890-3930 and delay the transition to (v) of (3).

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

At a micro-level, SPX/ES has receded from the key resistance at 4240-4268 shared in the Indices Update and is now repeatedly probing the key support at 4065-4105 for the last several hours.

While SPX/ES is attempting small bounces off this support, it will need to do more and garner sufficient traction to clear the newly formed local resistance at 4170-4190 if it intends to have another go at the key resistance at 4240-4268.

Inability to clear the local resistance shall mean a retest of the key support at 4065-4105.

Only a strong break below 4065 shall open the gates to a deeper retracement towards the key support at 3890-3930.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th May 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Amid the smaller degree volatility, it is important to NOT lose sight of the larger degree context in SPX/ES. 

We are providing a detailed breakdown of the wave structure that is currently in play. Kindly refer to the wave & sub-wave structure schematic representation to assimilate the overall context.

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) represent macro-level (larger degree) structures
(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) represent micro-level (smaller degree) structures

SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish wave (3) and remains on course to reach the 4400-4600 zone later this year. 

Zooming into the micro-level wave structure within (3), SPX/ES is currently retracing in a sub-wave (iv) of (3). Fourth waves are typically volatile and irregular.

To exit the corrective wave(iv) and transition into wave(v) of (3), which shall target the 4400-4600 zone, SPX/ES shall have to satisfy TWO conditions:

1. Work out a strong decisive break of the local resistance at 4170-4190
2. Operate above the newly formed local support at 4020-4028 on any technical pullback

Inability to satisfy these conditions shall trigger a deeper correction in wave(iv) of (3) towards the next key support at 3890-3930 and delay the transition to (v) of (3).

Again, please focus on the larger degree trend and not on the smaller degree squiggles

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 19th April 2021

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] 

“Bull markets are born on PESSIMISM, grow on SKEPTICISM, mature on OPTIMISM, and die on EUPHORIA” - Sir John Templeton

Translating this quote in the language of waves.

Bull markets are born in wave(1), grow in wave(2), mature in wave(3) & (4), and die in wave(5)

The above quote describes the evolution of mass psychology & emotions in a bull market. Application of Elliott wave & Fibonacci mathematics to these emotions helps in deciphering & forecasting the evolving path and the twists & turns of the market.

We have so far pursued the impulse wave(1) from the April 2020 lows followed by a corrective wave(2). The pullback in wave(2) was a necessary phase to prepare a launchpad to propel SPX/ES in a smooth larger degree wave(3) rally, which is currently underway.

At a nano-level (smallest degree), SPX/ES has now formed a new layer of local support at 4060-4095 above the key support at 3990-4013. These supports shall form the first line of defense in the event of any smaller degree technical pullback. Only a break below 3990 shall expose the micro-level key support at 3840-3875.

As long as SPX/ES operates above these supports on a pullback, it shall continue to extend higher in wave(3) to set up a test of the next key resistance at 4202-4218 followed by 4248-4265.

A local resistance has now formed at 4185-4191.

Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 5th April 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Recapping the overall context & important parameters in SPX/ES.

From the April 2020 lows, we have so far pursued an impulse wave(1), a corrective wave(2) that was full of whipsaws lasting several weeks followed by a smooth wave(3) rally with shallow pullbacks which is currently underway within a larger degree bullish setup. As stated in the previous macro-level updates, SPX/ES continues to remain on course to reach 4100+ later this year.

At a micro-level, the nearest key support continues to remain at 3840-3875. Please note that the previous technical pullback from the resistance managed to complete exactly at this support. As long as this support holds, SPX/ES has the potential to set up the test of the next key resistance at 4012-4035.

Only a strong decisive break of 3840 shall trigger a deeper micro-correction to the lower level key support at 3760-3790 followed by 3645-3675. 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 12th March 2021 

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a bullish setup within a larger degree wave(3). In line with the previous update (tagged), SPX/ES did make another attempt to break the key resistance at 3956-3965 (slightly calibrated) yesterday but failed at it again.

SPX/ES will need to get past this nearest hurdle if it intends to set up a test of the next key resistance at 4005-4030. Inability to surmount this hurdle may trigger another round of micro-correction to the lower level key support at 3760-3790 followed by 3645-3675.

A local support has now formed at 3875-3895.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 26th Feb 2021     

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] SPX/ES has been continuously oscillating between the nearest micro-resistance and support. 

First, SPX/ES receded from the key resistance ~ 3960 (KR2) last week to reach the support at ~3805 (KS1). Then it bounced off this support level to climb back up to the newly formed local resistance ~3930 (KR1) and subsequently reversed again to get back to the support at ~3805 (KS1). 

It is a good example that highlights the role of technical levels in governing the path of the markets. Also, conveys the immense value of a technical framework in decision making & risk/reward determination

At a micro-level, SPX/ES has immediate key supports that are adjacent to each other at 3805-3815 and 3760-3780. Only a strong break below 3760 shall invoke a deeper micro-correction scenario exposing the lower key supports at 3675-3695 followed by 3570-3596.

At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

 

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 5th Feb 2021            

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] At a micro-level, SPX/ES has receded exactly from the key resistance at 3860-3878 shared in the daily indices update. It has broken the nearest key support and is now attempting a bounce off the next key support at 3675-3695.

That said, SPX/ES will need to surmount the newly formed key resistance at 3810-3825 to pull itself out of this micro-correction mode. Inability to surpass this level shall make the nearest key support at 3675-3695 vulnerable, a break of which shall expose the next key supports at 3550-3585 followed by 3460-3484.

At a macro-level, SPX/ES continues to operate in a larger degree bullish setup.

REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS  - 20th Jan 2021   

[SPX Futures, ES, US500 Update] Markets have witnessed a sharp fall earlier today on the back of the growing unease over the potential economic impact of a new COVID strain in the UK. Additionally, the "Buy the Rumor Sell the News" phenomenon related to the stimulus deal might have also contributed to the drop.

Technically, the micro-level plummet in ES has stalled exactly near the key support at 3590-3594 shared in the previous update and a bounce is currently underway. That said, ES/SPX will need to surpass at least the nearest key resistance at 3675-3695 if intends to recover from this plunge