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REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 25th Jun 2021
[WTI August Futures Update] The previous update continues to fully apply. Small changes have been made to the local support and an additional layer of key support has been updated.
At the micro-level, WTI has receded from the key resistance at 74.30-74.70 and reached the local support at 71.90-72.25, which has triggered a bounce. An additional layer of key support has now formed at 70.40-70.80, which shall be the next line of defense if there is any further retracement.
WTI will need to operate above the key support at 68.10-68.50 and preferably above the supports listed above on any technical pullback to directly challenge the adjacent key resistances at 74.30-74.70 followed by 75.10-75.30. A break above 75.30 shall expose a relatively stronger key resistance at 76.50-76.90.
Only a strong decisive break below 68.10 shall open the gates to a deeper correction.
WTI continues to operate in wave(5) within a larger degree bullish setup at the macro-level.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 18th Jun 2021
[WTI July Futures Update] Let's review the BIG picture in WTI to understand the potential scenarios. We are also addressing a couple of macro-level FAQs in this update
WTI continues to remain in wave(5) within a larger degree bullish setup.
For a DIRECT path [PATH 1] further into the 72-78 zone, WTI will need to operate above the key support at 65.90-66.20 and preferably above the local support at 69.00-69.40. A break below 69.00 shall weaken PATH 1.
An alternate path [PATH 2] shall activate ONLY if WTI fails to hold above 69 during any technical pullback. In this scenario, WTI shall develop the potential to correct deeper to the key support at 65.90-66.20 or even the next key support at 61.55-62.20 before embarking on another journey into the 72-78 zone. Again, it is important to note that this path shall gain in probability & relevance only below 69.
Now that we have discussed the potential micro-level paths and the underlying parameters, let us also understand the potential of wave(5).
Wave (5) shall begin encountering larger degree key resistances or BIGGER HURDLES from 78 onwards. Potential extensions to the 84-86 area cannot be completely ruled out. The primary bullish scenario that we have been tracking from the lows of April 2020 points to the completion of wave(5) in this region or near the extensions.
Can a super bullish pattern develop targeting regions well beyond these extensions ($100 oil)?
Reaction to the larger degree key resistances in wave(5) shall provide visibility on any such evolving scenario.
What happens after wave(5) reaches completion?
Completion of wave(5) at a macro-level would signify that a MEANINGFUL TOP has formed in WTI and a sizable retracement of the order of at least $20-$30 shall begin.
This is a macro-level update to help understand the larger context that is currently underway in WTI. The regular micro-level updates shall help navigate the smaller degree twists & turns. Kindly know your parameters and plan accordingly
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 11th Jun 2021
[WTI July Futures Update] In line with the previous update (tagged), WTI is approaching the key resistance at 71.00-71.40. Only a strong decisive break of this level shall open the gates to the next key resistance at 73.20-73.50 followed by 74.30-74.70.
Any micro-level technical pullback will need to hold above the key support at 65.90-66.20 and preferably above the local support at 68.20-68.50 for WTI to continue pursuing the current path of directly extending into the 72-78 region.
Markets have the propensity to generate a few minutes/hours of hyper-volatility during news/report releases. This phenomenon occurs due to a sudden sporadic surge in volumes (or impulsive emotions). Once the volatility subsides, the price action blends back into the original technical structure.
Yesterday's news release around "US lifting sanctions on Iran oil officials" is a good example. During the hyper-volatility window caused by this headline, WTI revisited the nearest support around 68.50 in a flash and then rebounded sharply to merge back into the original micro-structure to set out in the direction of the next resistance near 71.
With Iran General Elections on June 18 and nuclear talks to continue over the next few weeks, oil markets may witness similar knee-jerk reactions to statements from various stakeholders. Amid such temporary volatility, it is important to stay laser-focused on the larger degree wave structure and the micro-technical parameters.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 4th Jun 2021
[WTI July Futures Update] As WTI approaches the 70+ region, it is important to pay close attention to all micro-level technical parameters and plan to position accordingly.
At a macro-level, WTI continues to remain in a larger degree bullish setup and is on course to reach the 72-78 region.
At a micro-level, WTI has now formed a pivot key support at 65.90-66.20 followed by a local support at 67.20-67.50.
WTI will need to ensure that it operates above this key support and preferably above the local support in all technical pullbacks if it intends to directly extend into the 72-78 zone.
Only a strong break below 65.90 shall open up the potential for a deeper correction to the lower supports and delay the next leg up.
An intermediate _local resistance_ has now formed at 69.65-69.95. A break above 69.95 shall clear the path to the next key resistance at 71.00-71.40 followed by 72.05-72.30.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 28th Jan 2021
[WTI March Futures Update] At a micro-level, WTI has been repeatedly attempting to probe the key resistance at 53.65-53.95. Only a strong break of this level shall shift the focus to the larger degree key resistance at 54.95-55.35.
The immediate key support continues to remain at 51.50-51.60 which has been tested multiple times but has held strong so far.
The macro-level update has not changed much. WTI continues to remain in a larger degree bullish setup above the critical key support at 45.40-45.70.
That said, it is approaching a few BIGGER HURDLES in the 54-58 zone which shall constantly attempt to push back and trigger frequent technical corrections.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 20th Jan 2021
[WTI March Futures Update] Please note the change in contract from February to March. The micro-pattern remains the same. Only the key levels have shifted slightly in light of the change in contract.
WTI has again bounced off the key support at 51.60-51.80. It has also formed a local support at 52.40-52.60. As long as these hold, WTI has the license to make another attempt to reach the larger degree key resistance at 54.95-55.35.
Only a break below 51.60 shall expose the next key supports at 50.80-50.95 followed by 49.70-49.90.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 17th Jan 2021
[WTI February Futures Update] WTI has been continuously attempting to bounce off the key support at 51.70-52.00 (slightly calibrated) in the last few trading sessions, but starts losing traction as it gets closer to the larger degree key resistance at 54.55-54.80. WTI has the license to make multiple attempts to reach the resistance as long as it operates above 51.70.
A break below 51.70 shall expose the adjacent key supports at 50.60-50.85 and 49.95-50.25
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 10th Jan 2021
[WTI February Futures Update] In line with the previous micro-update (tagged), WTI is continuing its journey higher within a larger degree bullish setup and has reached the 52+ zone. It has also broken the nearest resistance.
While the next key resistance is at 54.55-54.80, WTI will need to operate above the newly formed key support at 51.10-51.35 if it intends to target this level.
REAL-TIME UPDATE TO MEMBERS - 07th Jan 2021
[WTI February Futures Update] In our macro-level updates covered in the last few months, we have been consistently maintaining that WTI remains in a larger degree bullish setup and that it is only a matter of time before it conquers the 50-55 zone.
Now that WTI has entered this region, it is important to review the technicals in detail.
At a macro-level, while WTI remains in a bullish setup, it is not going to be all smooth sailing. WTI shall encounter BIGGER HURDLES in the 52-58 region which have the potential to trigger a larger degree technical correction. So, keep a close eye on the micro-level updates, know your technical parameters, and plan to position accordingly.